A public dashboard tracking the vital signs of the AI investment cycle — hyperscaler spending, prediction markets, and user churn signals. Updated daily. No vibes, just ratios.
LAST READING: — · STATUS: INFLATING
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bubble index / 100
0 RATIONAL100 POP
Live indicators
Hyperscaler CapEx ÷ Operating Cash Flow
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Average of MSFT · GOOG · AMZN · META, trailing quarter. Above 100% means they spend more building data centers than their operations bring in.
SOURCE: SEC EDGAR (XBRL)
NVIDIA Gross Margin
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If old-GPU resale values are being quietly propped up, the cost lands here first — margins are harder to dress up than revenue. Falling = the air is finding a way out.
SOURCE: SEC EDGAR (XBRL)
NVIDIA Receivables ÷ Revenue
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How much of each quarter's revenue is still an IOU. A rising line is the classic vendor-financing tell: selling chips to customers who pay later, sometimes with your own investment.
SOURCE: SEC EDGAR (XBRL)
Prediction market odds
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Trader-priced probability of an AI market correction, pulled from open prediction markets.
SOURCE: POLYMARKET
Churn search interest
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Search volume for “cancel [AI product] subscription,” indexed to the 12-month average. A leading signal of consumer fatigue.
SOURCE: GOOGLE TRENDS
IPO lock-up countdown
Awaiting a big AI IPO…
When a major AI lab goes public, this becomes a countdown to the day insiders are first allowed to sell. Bookmark now, panic later.
SOURCE: SEC FORM S-1 (SOMEDAY)
How the index works
The Bubble Index is a 0–100 reading of the CapEx ratio above, min-max scaled over its own history since 2015 — it measures how stretched hyperscaler spending is relative to its own past, not anyone's opinion. Prediction-market odds and churn interest will be blended in once their data pipelines are live.
The NVIDIA cards are deflation-watch indicators, not part of the index: gross margin is where hidden discounting and residual-value support surface first, and receivables-to-revenue proxies vendor financing. Both come straight from 10-Q filings via EDGAR XBRL.
It is deliberately mechanical. No committee, no vibes, no takes — if the number goes up, it's because the underlying data moved. Full formulas and raw data are published for every reading.
Is this financial advice? Absolutely not. It's a soap bubble with a number in it.